By Nuri Aden

For decades, Somalia’s vast hydrocarbon reserves remained buried in its history of turmoil.

A strengthening alliance with Türkiye, now as much an investor in Somalia’s growth as it has been a steadfast source of aid, is reshaping the East African nation’s energy future.

The shift marks more than just the ink on a diplomatic agreement. Since it docked at Mogadishu Port in 2024, the 285-foot Turkish vessel Oruç Reis, captained by Yasar Ozkan, has been a familiar sight off Somalia’s coast as it conducts seismic surveys crucial to hydrocarbon exploration.

Experts see the activity heralding the dawn of a new geopolitical and economic era for the Horn of Africa in general.

Last year wasn't just about mapping the technical feasibility of tapping into Somalia's largely untouched maritime hydrocarbon reserves. Türkiye’s initiative potentially opened the door for a long cycle of collaboration mutually beneficial to the partners.

Türkiye signed a deal with Somalia in Ankara on April 10, expanding their energy alliance to onshore exploration across three blocks totalling nearly 16,000 sq km.

The agreement paved the way for Türkiye’s state-owned Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) to initiate seismic studies onshore and then initiate drilling, should the initial data prove encouraging.

In deep freeze

The story of Somalia’s unfulfilled hydrocarbon potential goes back several decades.

Preliminary surveys before and after the country gained independence in 1960 suggested substantial offshore and inland oil and gas deposits.

This early promise attracted the attention of major international oil companies in the 1980s, some of whom secured exploration licenses for specific basins.

But these initial ventures all stalled. The Somali state’s collapse in 1991 triggered a complete withdrawal of international interest amid war, institutional disintegration, and global isolation.

It wasn’t until a decade ago that interest in Somalia’s hydrocarbon wealth was rekindled, based on 2D seismic data suggesting the presence of significant offshore reserves.

But the old spectre of instability, the lack of transparent legal frameworks and the fragmentation of authority kept global oil players at bay.

Türkiye's role

The growth of Türkiye's influence in Somalia can be traced to 2011, starting with what was seen as a watershed moment in the country’s outreach towards Africa.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was then the country’s Prime Minister, visited Somalia amid a devastating famine, becoming the first non-African leader to do so in over two decades. This wasn't seen as just a humanitarian gesture – it laid the base for an alliance that would endure.

Türkiye has since put in over US $1 billion into Somalia, helping the country rebuild infrastructure, improve its education and healthcare systems, and reconstruct airports and seaports.

The establishment of the TURKSOM military training base in Mogadishu, which happens to be Türkiye’s largest overseas military facility, adds heft to what was already a strong security partnership.

The past two years have witnessed this relationship evolve. “We want to contribute to the welfare of the Somali people and strengthen our friendship by investing not only in oil and gas but also in the mining and electricity sectors,” said Turkish minister of energy and natural resources, Alparslan Bayraktar.

The intergovernmental agreement and memorandum of understanding signed in Istanbul on March 7, 2024, constituted a milestone in the cooperation journey. The pact gave the TPAO exploration licenses for three strategically important offshore blocks.

Although these represent a fraction of Somalia’s offshore potential, spanning 216 blocks, Somalia’s state minister of foreign affairs, Ali Omar, sees this as the start of something larger.

“The Somali region, which has been remembered for conflict, instability, and hunger for decades, will now celebrate economic development and prosperity after the discoveries of Oruç Reis. I believe we will receive good news from our seismic research activities off the coast of Somalia,” President Erdogan said while flagging off the Oruç Reis on its journey in October 2024.

Earlier this month, Türkiye announced that 78% of offshore 3D seismic surveys had already been completed.

“This is the first time in history that Somalia’s oil and gas reserves are being properly explored,” said Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. “You can’t discount the first-mover advantage. With Türkiye’s support, Somalia aims to be a country vastly different from how the world perceives it.”

Geopolitical ripples

Türkiye’s engagement in Somalia goes beyond economic investment. In February 2024, a defence cooperation agreement between the two nations gave Türkiye a role in safeguarding Somalia’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in exchange for a potential 30% share of any maritime revenues it helps garner.

This positions Türkiye not only as a key energy investor but also a maritime power in the strategic Indian Ocean corridor, as envisaged in its “Win-Win Africa” doctrine. The strategy also converts diplomatic goodwill into tangible long-term strategic and economic outcomes.

As the Oruç Reis continues gleaning seismic data and onshore teams begin preparing the ground for the next big step, Somalia and Türkiye might have reason to believe this is just the beginning.