For di past few months, di Trump administration don dey try test di water for how dem fit reconnect wit Moscow, wit di hope say dem go fit isolate China by using di historical wahala wey dey between Russia and dia eastern neighbour.

Di idea na from di Cold War time, wen America use strategy take pull China comot from Soviet Union side. But e no go easy to achieve, even though dem dey optimistic.

China and Russia dey inside wetin dem call “no limits” strategic partnership, wey no be like di kind of relationship wey dem get for di 1990s and 2000s. Dis one dey cover all areas of dia relationship, especially trade, military, and politics, and e no dey allow any third-party influence. E dey help dem push di idea of multipolar world order.

Dis kain partnership mean say even though Russia and China sabi say dem get differences, dem still dey work together because dem no trust di West. Since 2014, wen Russia carry Crimea join dia territory, di relationship between Moscow and Washington don spoil well well.

After di Ukraine war start for February 2022, di matter between US and Russia don reach another level. America don put plenty sanctions on Russia, NATO don strong pass before as Finland and Sweden don join, and di US don tighten dia relationship wit European countries.

Because of dis, di chance for direct talk between Washington and Moscow dey very small, especially as e fit make di Europeans vex and scatter di transatlantic alliance. But di past few months don show say Washington still dey interested in reconnecting wit Moscow, even if e go affect dia allies.

Di main reason behind dis move na di US plan to shift dia focus from Europe and Middle East go Indo-Pacific region, so dem fit compete wit China. America dey fear say China fit overtake dem for military power, both for land and sea.

But to compete wit and hold China down no go dey possible if Russia and America no dey on better terms. Some people for US political circle don dey talk say make dem normalise relationship wit Russia to fit corner China.

E get some sense for dis idea because Russia and China no be real padi-padi. Dem don get wahala for history, like di small war wey dem fight for 1969 for dia border. Even for Central Asia, di relationship between China and Russia dey complicated.

China don overtake Russia as di main trade partner and investor for di five countries wey dey Central Asia. Plus, China don dey expand dia military influence for di area, dey sell arms and do joint exercises wit di countries.

Russia dey also dey careful about China matter for South Caucasus, where China don sign strategic partnership agreements wit Georgia and Azerbaijan, and dem dey push new trade routes wey no pass through Russia.

Since 2022, Russia foreign policy don dey focus more on Asia. Before di Ukraine war, Russia dey balance dia relationship between West and Asia, but now dem don face Asia well well. Even though e dey help dem economically, some Russian politicians dey talk say make dem balance di matter.

But to separate Russia and China no go easy. Di two countries dey comfortable wit dia relationship now, and dem dey see US as dia main competitor. Di kain wahala wey dey between Soviet Union and China for Cold War time no dey between Russia and China today.

Back then, Soviet Union and China dey on opposite sides, and dem even fight small war for dia border. But today, Russia and China dey work together well, and di US no fit use di same Cold War strategy take scatter dem.

Even if Moscow and Washington fit improve dia relationship, Russia no go fit cut China off completely. Di economic relationship between dem don strong, as China dey account for big part of Russia trade now. Plus, dem dey work together for security matter.

Russian politicians no go wan turn back to di West, especially as di world don dey move towards multipolar politics. Dem sabi say di US plan fit change if new president enter for 2028. Plus, di US dey struggle to remove dia hand from Middle East and Ukraine matter, so e go hard dem to focus on Indo-Pacific region.

Di split between China and Russia no dey likely, because di two no get serious wahala, and di US get plenty other problem wey dey hold dem back from quick foreign policy change.