Murat SofuogluTop officials from Russia and Ukraine are all set to meet face-to-face in Istanbul for the first time since they signed a historic grain deal in the Turkish megapolis in 2022.
While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Ankara and could potentially travel to Istanbul for the talks brokered by Türkiye, there was no clarity if Russian President Vladimir Putin would attend the talks.
“The difficulties of a leadership-level meeting show that negotiating conditions for a peace deal will be very tough between the two sides,” Abdullah Erboga, an Istanbul-based academic and expert on international affairs, tells TRT World.
The latest Istanbul talks – coming more than three years after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022 - are being seen as the first serious attempt to end the conflict, the bloodiest in Europe since World War II.
US President Donald Trump – who is on a Middle East tour – announced on board Air Force One that “if something happened, I’d go (to Istanbul) on Friday if it was appropriate”. His comments are being read as clear signs that the US and other stakeholders have not yet given up hopes of a last-minute trip to Istanbul by Putin.
There is also a possibility that Trump might visit Istanbul or Ankara to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and make a public call to Putin to show up for the Ukraine meeting.
"I don't know that he (Putin) would be there if I'm not there. I know he would like me to be there, and that's a possibility. If we could end the war, I'd be thinking about that," Trump told reporters accompanying him on his tour.
While there are big hopes for a positive outcome from the talks, analysts say there are real differences between the expectations of the two warring sides.
While Ukrainians expect at least a 30-day truce from the Istanbul meeting, the Russians are seeking a peace deal on the lines of the 2022 draft agreement in Istanbul, which proposed Kiev’s neutrality and the acceptance of Russian as the second official language of Ukraine. Ukraine would also consider reducing its army and paying attention to Russia’s security concerns, according to the draft.
But the draft was not ratified as Ukraine refused to recognise Russian sovereignty in some occupied regions, including Crimea.
Sergei Markov, a leading Russian academic and a former advisor to Putin, sees the opportunity for successful negotiations in Istanbul as “quite small” because of various reasons ranging from Zelenskyy’s “reluctance” to hold serious talks with Moscow to big differences between the two sides on what a ceasefire would serve.
The Russian president pointed to Istanbul as a potential venue for “direct talks” with Kiev. The Ukrainian leader swiftly responded by proposing a face-to-face meeting. Will the twain meet?
Russia strongly believes that Kiev has a hidden agenda in its unconditional ceasefire demand backed by Western powers, which is to address their growing military crisis, Markov tells TRT World. He feels that Zelenskyy wants to use the ceasefire period as an opportunity to invite British, French and other Western troops into Ukrainian territory.
Zelenskyy is also seeking the deployment of US air-defence systems in Poland and Romania, the two Eastern European neighbours to Ukraine, to protect both Kiev’s troops and Western soldiers, according to Markov.
In recent months, Ukraine has faced military setbacks across different fronts.
Moscow considers the 30-day ceasefire call without conditions as the proposal of “all of the Russian enemies,” says Markov, but he also adds that the Kremlin is not against a ceasefire if it provides clear guarantees that no foreign troops and military aid would be sent to Ukraine.
“Zelenskyy (has) come to Türkiye only because of Trump’s pressure,” not for a real peace deal, says Markov.
Prior to his trip to Türkiye, Zelenskyy indicated that "Ukraine is ready for any format of negotiations, and we are not afraid of meetings.”
But a Wall Street Journal report, citing “officials briefed on Kiev’s position”, claimed that Ukrainian negotiators only aim to talk about a ceasefire without discussing any other matters.
On the other hand, Russians do not want to have a concrete peace deal at this stage when Moscow has an upper hand in war fronts, says Erboga, adding that Moscow’s low level representation in the Istanbul meeting proves this point.
Also, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s definition of the Istanbul negotiations as “intrigue” shows Russian hesitation for a peace deal, according to Erboga.
The Russian analyst says that beyond disagreement on calling an unconditional ceasefire, there are also other problem areas, particularly on the content of a possible peace deal.
He was referring to Moscow’s position of embracing the 2022 draft agreement in Istanbul and Ukraine’s refusal to accept it.
The process of signing a peace deal based on the 2022 Istanbul negotiations was “interrupted” because of both Zelenskyy’s reluctance to reach an agreement with Russia and opposition from British and US leaders, David Johnson and Joe Biden, according to Markov.
Can both sides return to the Istanbul format?
“For Russia, it’s important to continue the Istanbul negotiations to specify those conditions of a possible deal produced by the 2022 talks,” says Markov.
Among those conditions is demilitarisation of Ukraine, which should reduce its army size and heavy weapons to a level where it can not target territories deep inside Russia, he says.
He also mentions Ukraine must end “anti-Russia measures” like restrictions on the use of the Russian language, and also dismantle far-right groups like the Azov Brigade.
Markov sees these alleged Ukrainian policies as the “root causes” of the conflict, an opinion similar to Putin’s call that any negotiations with Ukrainians should aim to “eliminate the root causes”.
“Russia wants to continue those negotiations with Ukraine to reach a peace deal,” says the analyst, referring to the Istanbul format. “Russia clearly rejects the Western narrative that Moscow is the aggressor,” says Markov.
But other analysts suggest that no matter who is the aggressor, the current Ukrainian military situation is much better than in 2022, as they hold more Russian territory than initial days of Moscow's “special military operation”.
This means Ukraine is not willing to accept Russian conditions from three years ago.
Some even suggest that Zelenskyy is open to visiting Ankara rather than Istanbul “so as to mark a break with that line of negotiations.”
Reluctance factor
Both Russians and Ukrainians have blamed each other for not reaching a peace deal so far.
Analysts say that both sides want to show Trump their willingness to reach a deal, but blame the other party for preventing the occurrence of an agreement.
“Zelenskyy plans to show Trump that Russians are not willing to reach a peace deal, so the Trump administration can go back to policies of the Biden administration,” says Markov.
But Western analysts also see Putin’s recent “direct talks” offer as a political tactic to show his willingness to reach a peace deal with Ukraine to the US president.
