Donald Trump’s efforts to broker a peace deal in the Ukraine war are being seriously tested, as deadly Russian missile strikes on Kiev, the involvement of North Korean troops on the battlefield, and a high-profile car bombing near Moscow have only heightened tensions between Washington and Moscow.

Despite months of back-channel negotiations, no agreement has yet been reached. Trump, eager to produce a diplomatic breakthrough before reaching the 100-day mark of his presidency, issued a blunt public demand to Russian President Vladimir Putin: “I want him to stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal.”

The situation on the battlefield remains grim. Russian forces have expelled Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region – part of Russia’s own territory – with Putin personally thanking North Korean soldiers for their role, in what he describes, to “liberate” the area from Kiev’s forces.

“Our Korean friends acted out of a sense of solidarity, justice and genuine comradeship,” Putin said today, adding that “We pay tribute to the heroism, high level of special training and self-sacrifice of the Korean soldiers who, shoulder to shoulder with Russian fighters, defended our homeland as their own.”

The announcement illustrated how the Ukraine conflict has increasingly become a proxy battle between opposing global alliances – pitting pro-Western forces against a growing coalition of anti-West states.

Deadly escalations threaten fragile talks

The fragility of peace efforts was further underlined by a series of violent escalations last week. In one of the deadliest attacks in recent months, Russian missiles rained down on Kiev, killing at least 12 civilians. Ukrainian drones retaliated by targeting a drone manufacturing plant in Russia’s autonomous region of Tatarstan.

Shortly after, a car bomb exploded in Balashikha, a city about 30 kilometres east of Moscow, killing Yaroslav Moskalik, deputy head of the Main Operations Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces. The bombing occurred a little before Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, arrived in Moscow for high-stakes talks with Putin to present Washington’s seven-point peace plan.

The attacks prompted an urgent plea from Trump to Putin, urging: “Vladimir, STOP!” 

“The recent large scale missile attacks on Ukrainian cities by Russia mystifies me. I do not see these as useful in any way to advance victory in Putin's war. In fact, these attacks are clearly counterproductive to the peace process,” Edward Erickson, a former officer in the US army and a leading military analyst, tells TRT World.

The missile strikes and targeted killing underscores the growing difficulties Trump faces, who has long touted his dealmaking skills in complex international arenas where personal ambitions, national interests and global politics collide. But his team continues to insist they are “close, but not close enough” to a deal, according to US Secretary of State Mike Rubio.

A shift in battlefield dynamics

While diplomats wrangle over terms, Russia continues to push forward on the ground, with small but significant territorial gains. 

“Russia is slowly and incrementally pushing further into eastern Ukraine. Russian forces are continuing their assaults in Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, with the goal of taking as much territory in these provinces as possible,” says Eugene Chausovsky, a defence expert and a senior director on analytical development and training at New Lines Institute. 

“This is a key element driving negotiations, with the US calling for a de facto recognition of Russia’s control of these provinces, alongside a de jure recognition of Russia’s control of Crimea,” Chausovsky tells TRT World.

Fighting has largely turned into a war of attrition, with neither side achieving large breakthroughs. Ukrainian forces have made modest advances near Tortsk, while Russian troops have advanced slightly into the Belgorod and Sumy regions.

“The ground war is basically stalemated,” Erickson says. “Neither side appears to have the capability, at this time, to conduct large scale offensive operations.”  

However, Russian forces have continued “limited offensive operations” in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast but “did not advance”, according to a recent update by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Russian forces attacked north of Kharkiv city, the monitoring group reported.

In the east, the battle for Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast remains intense. Much of Donetsk has been under Russian control since 2022, but Chasiv Yar’s strategic position has made it a major flashpoint. 

“The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Chasiv Yar direction stated on April 23 that Russian forces have a manpower advantage and use armored vehicles to bring infantry as close to the frontlines as possible before dismounting and attacking on foot,” said the ISW report. 

The fierce fighting underscores Ukraine’s ongoing challenge: confronting one of the world’s largest armies, backed by a nuclear arsenal.   

Russian military industry on fire

Despite suffering an estimated 790,000 dead and wounded, according to Western monitoring groups, Russia has been able to recruit 30,000 troops every month, said NATO commander Gen. Christopher Cavoli in a recent testimony to Congress. 

Cavoli also noted that Russia’s frontline forces have swelled to over 600,000 troops, nearly double the number at the outset of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. 

“Russia is not just reconstituting service members but is also replacing combat vehicles and munitions at an unprecedented pace,” warned the US general. 

Despite losing approximately 3,000 tanks, 9,000 armored vehicles, 13,000 artillery systems and over 400 air defense systems in the past year in its fight against Ukraine, Moscow’s military industrial complex works well “to replace them all”, according to Cavoli. 

“Russia has expanded its industrial production, opened new manufacturing facilities, and converted commercial production lines for military purposes,” said the top NATO commander.

This year, Russia is projected to roll out 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles – figures that far outstrip US and European production levels.

By comparison, the US produces only about 135 tanks annually and is currently manufacturing no new Bradley Fighting Vehicles. Russian artillery shell production, which hovers around 250,000 per month, is three times more than the US and Europe combined production levels.

While Trump once famously promised he could deliver “the best deals,” the Ukraine conflict may prove to be a negotiation where battlefield losses, diplomatic deadlock and unpredictable escalations outweigh even the best-laid plans.