Direct negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian delegations are expected today in Istanbul. It marks their first face-to-face meeting since March 2022—an event that many view as a critical moment for peace.

According to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, the venue offers all the right conditions for successful talks: "You have politicians—your foreign minister, your president—who will help bring these negotiations to a successful conclusion. Türkiye is indeed crucial here."

US President Donald Trump also expressed optimism, suggesting that the parties could agree on a 30-day ceasefire: "Don't underestimate the meeting in Türkiye on Thursday, President Erdogan will be a great host."

Türkiye previously hosted Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in March 2022. That meeting led to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which helped stabilise global wheat prices and avert a food crisis. In September 2022, Türkiye also mediated a major prisoner exchange—215 Ukrainian soldiers for 55 Russian personnel, including politician Viktor Medvedchuk.

Russian-Ukrainian negotiations have intensified since early 2025, largely under pressure from the United States. Until now, however, these talks have been indirect. The Istanbul meeting will be the first direct bilateral dialogue in nearly three years.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reminded observers that Moscow and Kiev had nearly reached a deal in 2022, but their efforts failed due to the interference of “military barons”.

"Thanks to recent efforts, a new window of opportunity has opened. We hope and believe that the opportunities for achieving peace will not be missed this time," the Turkish leader added.

Political analyst Denis Denisov, told TRT World that Ankara’s role remains crucial: "Türkiye is one of the few countries that are effective mediators in this conflict."

Who is at the table?

A Russian delegation arrived at Istanbul’s Atatürk Airport on Thursday morning with President Vladimir Putin approving the delegation’s composition just a day earlier. As in 2022, it is led by Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky, and includes: Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Chief of the General Staff Igor Kostyukov, and Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin.

Medinsky stated on Telegram, the goal of the talks is “to establish a long-lasting and durable peace by eliminating the root causes of the conflict.”

On the Ukrainian side, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also travelled to Türkiye. He met with President Erdoğan in Ankara before heading to the negotiations in Istanbul.

“We are in contact with the American side; I think they will also be in Türkiye at a high level. We will see what level the Russians are at," Zelenskyy said.

He also noted that the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul would be represented at a high level. "The Foreign Ministry, my office, the military, our intelligence, representatives of all our intelligence services, by the way, in order to make any decisions toward the expected just peace," the president stated.

The negotiators from the Ukrainian side include: Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, and Presidential Advisor Ihor Zhovkva.

The United States is the only party to announce its participants in advance. On May 13, President Trump confirmed that Secretary of State Marco Rubio would attend. Special envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg are expected to arrive on Friday.

What to expect from the negotiations?

According to Denisov, the Russian delegation was selected to reflect continuity with the March 2022 process: "Russia perceives these negotiations as a continuation of the peace process. Most likely, the Russian side will propose returning to the previous agreement, adapting it to new realities, and then continuing dialogues regarding its adoption and implementation."

The presence of senior military officials in Russia’s delegation signals that security arrangements will be a focal point.

Denisov explains: "To declare a 30-day ceasefire is one thing. To implement it is quite another. This requires preliminary agreement on a large number of parameters related to the ceasefire and monitoring of this regime. If the parties themselves monitor its implementation, the result will certainly not be satisfactory."

According to him, the military will be able to address issues related to the withdrawal of weapons, including specific types of equipment and distances. "It is necessary to specify what types of weapons may be involved: heavy weapons, small arms, mortars, tanks, and so on. Then, determine from which line this equipment is withdrawn. There are many questions. The military in the Russian delegation is called upon to discuss and agree on these parameters."

Denisov adds that simply holding the meeting is already a milestone: "This will already be a result. It is not worth getting ahead of ourselves and saying that all documents will be worked out within two or three days. But in the context of security, significant progress can be achieved. The Russian side is represented by high-level specialists who can quite possibly develop a roadmap for ending hostilities."

While the path to peace remains uncertain, the return to direct dialogue in Istanbul offers the clearest sign yet that diplomacy still has a chance.