Roman Catholic cardinals will begin the task on Wednesday of electing a new pope, locking themselves away from the world until they choose the man they hope can unite a diverse but divided global Church.
In a process dating to medieval times, the cardinals will file into the Vatican’s frescoed Sistine Chapel after a public Mass in St. Peters’ Basilica and start their secret conclave for a successor to Pope Francis, who died last month.
The first Latin American pope has died at 88 after 12 years of leadership marked by reform efforts and health struggles.
No pope has been elected on the first day of a conclave for centuries, so voting could continue for several days before one of the red-hatted princes of the Church receives the necessary two-thirds majority to become the 267th pontiff.
There will be only one ballot on Wednesday. Thereafter, the cardinals can vote as many as four times a day. Black smoke from a chimney on the roof of the chapel will mark an inconclusive vote, while white smoke and the peeling of bells will signal that the 1.4 billion member church has a new leader.
Cardinals in recent days have offered different assessments of what they are looking for in the next pontiff.
While some have called for continuity with Francis’ vision of reform, others have said they want to turn the clock back and embrace old traditions. Many have indicated they want a more predictable, measured pontificate.
A record 133 cardinals from 70 countries will enter the Sistine Chapel, up from 115 from 48 nations in the last conclave in 2013.
The contenders
There are no official candidates for the papacy, but some cardinals are considered “papabile,” or possessing the characteristics necessary to become pope. After John Paul II broke the Italian hold on the papacy in 1978, the field has broadened considerably, such that cardinals from far-flung countries are now seen as contenders. The past three popes have hailed from Poland (John Paul II), Germany (Benedict XVI) and Argentina (Francis). Of the 133 cardinals expected to vote at the conclave, 108 were appointed by Francis.
The conclave is not expected to begin before May 6.
While no clear favourite has emerged, Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin and Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle are considered the front-runners.
However, if it quickly becomes obvious that neither can win, votes are likely to shift to other contenders, with the electors possibly coalescing around geography, doctrinal affinity or common languages.
Among other potential candidates are France’s Jean-Marc Aveline, Hungary’s Peter Erdo, American Robert Prevost and Italy’s Pierbattista Pizzaballa.
“Wait and see. It takes some patience,” Italian Cardinal Mario Zenari told reporters on Tuesday.
Among their considerations will be whether they should seek a pope from the global south where congregations are growing, as they did in 2013 with the Argentinian Francis, hand back the reins to Europe or even pick a first US pope.
The conclave
The conclave was called after Francis died on April 21 at age 88. There was a delay between his death and the conclave to allow time for a funeral, burial and a period of mourning. It was also necessary to give cardinals time to arrive in Rome from all corners of the Earth, and to let them get acquainted before entering the conclave, an ancient ritual steeped in mystery and ritual.
The cardinals are cut off from the world at the Vatican, between residences and the Sistine Chapel, where they vote in secret beneath Michelangelo’s famed ceiling fresco of the Creation and his monumental “Last Judgment.”
Taking no chances, the Vatican is asking cardinals to hand over their phones for the duration of the conclave and is deactivating cell phone coverage at the Vatican. It also plans to use signal jammers around the Sistine Chapel and the Domus Santa Marta hotel and adjacent residence where the cardinals will sleep, in order to prevent surveillance and communication with the outside world.
Once a candidate receives the necessary votes and accepts, he chooses a papal name and enters the “Room of Tears” to don his papal vestments.
Minutes later, he is introduced to the world from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica with the proclamation in Latin: “Annuntio vobis gaudium magnum: Habemus Papam!” (“I bring you tidings of great joy: We have a pope!”) That will be immediately followed by the revelation of his baptismal name, in Latin, followed by the papal name he has chosen.
On the clock
The longest conclave in history lasted nearly three years, but it’s reasonable to assume that this conclave will be much, much shorter. Cardinals this week said they expect a short conclave, though it will likely take at least a few rounds of voting. The conclave opens late afternoon Wednesday. Cardinals are expected to hold the first round of voting on Wednesday, but there is no requirement that they do so.
For most of the past century, it has taken between three and eight ballots to find a pope. John Paul I — the pope who reigned for 33 days — was elected on the third ballot in 1978. His successor, St. John Paul II, needed eight. Francis was elected on the fifth in 2013.
After the mourning, cardinals will gather for the conclave to elect a new pope to lead the world's 1.4 billion Catholics.
